If one of your value bet loses, it isn’t going to mean the bet does not have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The decisive factor is to seek out value within your picks. Bear in mind, the more the range of value bets, the bigger the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result isn’t enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not always the exact same, to put it differently a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are actually hundreds of factors why and also you will never be able to account for them all, if you could you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look-at such qualitative things as the current injury list of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We also can look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at specific things like past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods for example the Rateform method. We can make use of all of these details to predict the outcome of match A and the outcome of match B but still not have the same result, a division of the reason for this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Whenever we look-at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams within the match, but why not expand this to look at how the additional teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not necessarily the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take note of to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips made for the exact same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement according to that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in a single league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across many different leagues and obtaining a portion success rate for each league. It indicates we can now look for the league which produces the very best overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league is more more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of an individual match there are plenty of factors that produce up this phenomenon, but there are actually just a number of major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins by way of a season than another. The most obvious of these might be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is often a gap within the skills and soccer gambling abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this really is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being far more competitive than others due to a closer degree of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. In the matter of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will almost certainly be of a lower frequency.

Consequently, let’s say we have been excited about predicting a home win, armed with our new details about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we are going to have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this isn’t going to mean that just because there are actually more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you will discover. For example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s state that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the exact same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are most likely as a result of the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class when it comes to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the very best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to each and every tip made. You will need to make certain that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for just about every prediction, for every league, as well as for the whole season. You need to do this in order to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. Nothing is stopping you using several different sets of parameters as long while you keep the data produced from each separate.