If one of your value bet loses, it doesn’t mean the bet will not have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to find value within your picks. Keep in mind, the better the number of value bets, the bigger the profit you can achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not always the exact same, put simply a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A as well as the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the same result (i.e. a correct prediction or perhaps a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are hundreds of reasons why and also you will never be able to account for them all, if you can you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We can also look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things such as past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods for example the Rateform method. We can utilize all of this information to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B and still not possess the same result, a division of the reason for this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s another thing, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

When we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams within the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played are usually performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear several of you say. Because results are not necessarily the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we keep in mind to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips created for the same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement determined by that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in just one league will give us a share success rate for home wins for that specific league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across many various leagues and obtaining a portion success rate for each league. This implies we can now look for the league which produces the top overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league is more prone to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than some other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Will be the League?:

Why does this distinction among the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of just one match there are several factors that make up this phenomenon, but you will discover just a couple of major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins by way of a season than another. The most obvious of these could be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is often a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this really is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being a lot more competitive than others as a result of a closer amount of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

Because of this, let’s say we are excited about predicting a home win, armed with our new information regarding the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues once we can manage, trusted online soccer gambling and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we shall have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this won’t mean that just because there are actually more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you can find. By way of example, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the exact same range of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are probably as a result of the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class in regards to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the very best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there is more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to each and every tip made. You will need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for just about every prediction, for every league, as well as for the whole season. You must do this as a way to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as over time. You’ll find nothing stopping you using many different sets of parameters as long while you keep your data produced from each separate.