If one of your value bet loses, it isn’t going to mean the bet isn’t going to have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to discover value within your picks. Remember, the greater the range of value bets, the bigger the profit you can achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result isn’t enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not absolutely the exact same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will not really produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you’ll find hundreds of factors why and also you will never be able to account for all of them, if you can you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you might look-at such qualitative things as the current injury list of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We also can look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things such as past performance, position in the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can make use of all of this data to predict the outcome of match A as well as the outcome of match B but still not possess the same result, included in the reason behind this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there is something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Whenever we look-at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the 2 teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not necessarily the exact same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take under consideration to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all the home win tips designed for the exact same competition that the match will be played in and after that make a judgement based on that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to take into account that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in an individual league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that specific league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a variety of leagues and obtaining a share success rate for each league. This means we can now look for the league which produces the most effective overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we know that that league might be more prone to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Will be the League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single match there are numerous factors that produce up this phenomenon, but you’ll find just a number of major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins by way of a season than another. The most obvious of these might be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In almost any league there is usually a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the top of the league and those at the bottom, this really is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being a lot more competitive than others due to a more in-depth level of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

For this reason, let’s say we have been considering predicting a home win, armed with our new information regarding the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues even as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we shall have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this will not mean that just because you will discover more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are actually. For instance, let’s say we make 100 home predictions in league A and 100 in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same range of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are most likely due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class on the subject of the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good online casino soccer just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to just about every tip made. You need to make certain that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, as well as for the entire season. You need to do this in order to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as over time. There’s nothing stopping you using several unique sets of parameters as long when you keep your data produced from each separate.