If one of your value bet loses, it doesn’t mean the bet will not have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The decisive factor is to search out value in your picks. Of course, the greater the number of value bets, the larger the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result isn’t enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not always the exact same, quite simply a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A as well as the same possible outcome for match B will not necessarily produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you will find hundreds of factors why and also you will never be able to account for all of them, if you could you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We may also look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things such as past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods for example the Rateform method. We can utilize all of this data to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B and still not possess the same result, included in the reason behind this really is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there’s something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Once we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the 2 teams within the match, but why not expand this to look-at how the additional teams they have played are usually performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not absolutely the exact same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we consider to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all of the home win tips created for the same competition that the match is being played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to take into account that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in a single league will give us a share success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a number of different leagues and obtaining a portion success rate for each league. What this means is we can now look for the league which produces the most effective overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league might be more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions as well.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this distinction between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single match there are several factors that produce up this phenomenon, but there are just a few major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins by way of a season than another. The most obvious of these may be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In almost any league there is usually a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being much more competitive than others because of a more in-depth degree of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. In the matter of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

Therefore, let’s say we have been considering predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues since we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we are going to have more success with our home predictions. Do not be misled, this does not mean that simply because you can find more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you will discover. For instance, let’s say we make 100 home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s claim that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same range of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are almost certainly as a result of the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class in relation to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good soccer just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to just about every tip made. You should make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, as well as for the whole season. You must do this in order to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. You’ll find nothing stopping you using several different sets of parameters as long while you keep the results produced from each separate.