Smart sports betting, and football betting primarily, is in line with the skills of the teams involved instead of random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes a highly effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the flip side, sports betting – and also poker – is not determined by random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. It means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long term, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” determined by previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. As an example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that therefore tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in fact, the chances that the next coin toss will result in tails is exactly the exact same regardless of the range of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” according to probabilities. There’s absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The determining factor for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

Which is not to say that random chance is just not involved, of-course it really is. Any team can make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nonetheless the smart sports bettor knows that the level of skill of the team in question is a lot more more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor in the long run. Anyone can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets based on the skills of the teams involved, one is significantly more very likely head to http://www.techinaut.edu.in win significant quantities of money over the long term.