If one of your value bet loses, it doesn’t mean the bet won’t have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The decisive factor is to seek out value in your picks. Bear in mind, the better the range of value bets, the larger the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result isn’t enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to get the best from it. Results are not always the same, to paraphrase a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will not really produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you’ll find hundreds of factors why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you could you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We also can look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at things like past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods for example the Rateform method. We can use all of these details to predict the outcome of match A as well as the outcome of match B but still not possess the same result, a component of the reason behind this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there is something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Whenever we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand this to look-at how the additional teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear several of you say. Because results are not always the exact same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we consider to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips created for the same competition that the match has been played in and then make a judgement according to that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in a single league will give us a share success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a variety of leagues and obtaining a share success rate for each league. This implies we can now look for the league which produces the most effective overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league is more very likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions also.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this distinction among the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of just one match there are plenty of factors that produce up this phenomenon, but you will discover just several major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these may very well be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? In any league there is often a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being far more competitive than others as a result of a closer level of skills throughout the league, ‘a tight league’. When it comes to a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

For this reason, let’s say we have been enthusiastic about predicting a home win, armed with our new details about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches within a season for as many leagues as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You shall find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we will have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this will not mean that just because you will find More Information and facts home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins there are. For instance, let’s say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and 100 in league B, and let’s say that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are probably due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class when it comes to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the very best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there is more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to every single tip made. It’s important to ensure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your best settings for each method and stick to them for just about every prediction, for every league, and for the whole season. You must do this to be able to retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as over time. Nothing is stopping you using several unique sets of parameters as long when you keep the information produced from each separate.