The point spread’s sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the amount bet on the underdog is equal to the amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. As such, in the event the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, no matter what team covers.
The best linesmakers are people who have a feel for precisely what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public’s perception of the strength of the two teams. It isn’t going to necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the 2 teams. And also the sportsbook betting public’s perception is usually wrong.
Once you understand that concept, anything else will start to fall into place. You shall have an advantage over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Do not bet against the Cowboys simply because you want to see them lose. And, don’t bet on a team simply because you like the team. And do not bet on your favorite team in case you are an avid fan. It’s almost not possible to be objective. Fans tend to be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the exact same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they’re not so sure of. It’s those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. If you’re uncertain about a game, don’t bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. Conversely, if you’re able to be objective, you’ve got an advantage. You probably know read more on Hawaii`s official blog about your home team than those in other parts of the country since the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage that is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, factor that into your decision. Some teams have other teams’ number. Within the last four years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times and also the one time they didn’t, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. In the last 5 years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The trend might not hold and also you lose your bet. Nonetheless, remember the reason is to increase your chances of winning. Determined by past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you’re more very likely to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late in the week. By waiting until the end of the week, you’ll know about any injuries to key players that could affect how you bet. On a regular basis, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that may keep the player out of the game. Moreover, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Range of Games You Bet. More isn’t better. The optimum number appears to be 3 to 6 games. Any more as well as the winning percentages have a tendency to decline since the law of averages is necessary. (The better games you play the more likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that is a losing season, because of the juice.) In addition, it’s simpler to focus on a limited range of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. Regardless of what, you can count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, as well as books. Be prepared to ride it out. If you’re using Pro Predictor or a handicapping service, you must stick with it throughout the season so that you can come out a winner. Leaving at the very first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to have the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you’ll never have and can affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is a vital to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over and over until it is firmly embedded in your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, in case you are going to bet on streaks, bet the streak continues. And it doesn’t matter whether the streak is a winning streak or a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and also you should bet against it. But there’s a hidden trap.
Think about the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Of course, per week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You are $100 ahead. But what happens whenever they do cover as well as the streak continues. You’re $110 in the hole. What do you do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 since the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? In the event that you do, and the streak ends, you win $100 and now are just $10 loser and that is the end of that. Still, in the event the streak continues, you are now $220 in the hole. What do you do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall in to the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and attempt to get back some of your losses? Do you double up in an try to cover your loses? Do not do it. Doubling up is never a wise idea. It’s another trap that will cause you to have huge losses and it isn’t worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. If they fail to cover, you’ve lost $110 and that is that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens whenever they do cover and the streak continues. You are $100 to the excellent and if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you can lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 and also the streak ends, your net losses are $10. But, in the event the streak continues, you’re guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
Because of this, if you bet against a streak, the most you may win is $100 but you the amount you may lose is limited only by the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you may lose is $110, though the amount you may win is limited only through the length of the streak.