If one of your value bet loses, it does not mean the bet does not have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to search out value in your picks. Simply, the greater the range of value bets, the larger the profit you can achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is just not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not necessarily the exact same, in other words a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and also the same possible outcome for match B will definitely not produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well you can find hundreds of factors why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you could you would without doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you might look-at such qualitative things as the current injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We may also look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look at specific things like past performance, position within the league, or maybe more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can make use of all of these facts to predict the outcome of match A as well as the outcome of match B and still not possess the same result, a part of the reason for this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there is another thing, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Once we look-at one match in isolation we only look-at the factors concerning each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand this to look-at how another teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear several of you say. Because results are not absolutely the same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we consider to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all of the home win tips made for the same competition that the match is being played in and after that make a judgement based on that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to take into account that we did not have before.

Looking across all the home win predictions in a single league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across a number of different leagues and honduras.esapa.edu.ar`s blog obtaining a percentage success rate for each league. Therefore we can now look for the league which produces the best overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league is more more likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than every other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions also.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this difference among the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of just one match there are many factors that produce up this phenomenon, but you can find just a few major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these could possibly be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is usually a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being a lot more competitive than others due to a closer degree of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. In the case of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will almost certainly be of a lower frequency.

Because of this, let’s say we have been thinking about predicting a home win, armed with our new details about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches throughout a season for as many leagues even as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You shall find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we shall have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this isn’t going to mean that simply because you will find more home wins we are bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you will discover. For instance, let’s say we make 100 home predictions in league A and one hundred in league B, and let’s claim that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are almost certainly due to the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class with regards to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the most effective performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there might be more to it than that. It’s no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the same rules to every single tip made. It is important to ensure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for just about every prediction, for every league, and then for the entire season. You must do this so that you can retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. There’s nothing stopping you using a number of different sets of parameters as long as you keep the information produced from each separate.