If one of your value bet loses, it will not mean the bet won’t have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to discover value in your picks. As always, the better the number of value bets, the higher the profit you can achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result is just not enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not always the exact same, put simply a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and the same possible outcome for match B will not really produce the exact same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are hundreds of reasons why and also you will never be able to account for them all, if you might you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you may look at such qualitative things as the current injury list of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We could also look at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look at things like past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can utilize all of these facts to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B but still not have the same result, a part of the reason behind this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all of the factors in a match, it’s impossible. But there is something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

Once we look at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the two teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played will also be performing? ‘Why would we want to do that?’ I hear some of you say. Because results are not always the exact same. Let’s say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we look at to improve the prediction of a home win? We can look at the performance of all the home win tips created for the same competition that the match will be played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This really is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in just one league will give us a percentage success rate for home wins for that particular league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across many various leagues and obtaining a percentage success rate for each league. This means we can now look for the league which produces the top overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league might be more prone to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than any other. Of course we can employ this technique for away win and draw predictions also.

How Tight Is the League?:

Why does this difference between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of just one match there are many factors that make up this phenomenon, but you will discover just a few major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these may very well be described as the ‘tightness’ of the league. What do I mean by ‘tightness’? Within any league there is usually a gap within the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this really is often expressed as a ‘difference in class’. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being far more competitive than others because of a closer level of skills through the league, ‘a tight league’. When it comes to a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a ‘not so tight league’ and home wins will probably be of a lower frequency.

As a result, let’s say we are thinking about predicting a home win, armed with our new information about the ‘tightness’ of leagues we could make predictions for matches within a season for as many leagues even as we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the ‘tightness’ of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we are going to have more success with our home predictions. Don’t be misled, this won’t mean that just because you will find more home wins we are bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the number of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you will find. As an example, let’s say we make 100 home predictions in league A and 100 in league B, and let’s state that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the exact same range of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are probably because of the ‘tightness’ of each league. League B will be a ‘tight’ league with more teams having similar levels of ‘class’, whereas league A has a wider margin of class in relation to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of-course there is more to it than that. It’s no good just click the up coming internet site taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to every single tip made. You need to ensure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for every single prediction, for every league, as well as for the whole season. You must do this so that you can retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, as well as over time. There isn’t anything stopping you using a number of different sets of parameters as long when you keep the results produced from each separate.